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| Titel |
The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Lauwaet, P. Viaene, E. Brisson, N. P. M. van Lipzig, T. van Noije, A. Strunk, S. Van Looy, N. Veldeman, L. Blyth, K. De Ridder, S. Janssen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 12 ; Nr. 14, no. 12 (2014-06-16), S.5893-5904 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118809
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-14-5893-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of
air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to
provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the
near future (2026–2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality
modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by
output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year
time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different
emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key
indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34
observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing
10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results
for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O3
concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due
to less O3 titration by reduced NOx emissions. Applying an
alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor
impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background
changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface
O3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The
very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much
improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to
a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes
during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a
25% decrease of these peak episodes. |
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