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Titel |
Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling |
VerfasserIn |
F. Yan, E. Winijkul, D. G. Streets, Z. Lu, T. C. Bond, Y. Zhang |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1680-7316
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2014-06-10), S.5709-5733 |
Datensatznummer |
250118782
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/acp-14-5709-2014.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the
transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated
Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the
emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project
emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models
of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on
the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic
drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the
vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic
development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based
on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire
transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four
commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel
use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128–171 EJ
across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101–138 Tg
of carbon monoxide (CO), 44–54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx),
14–18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and
3.6–4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the
global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected
decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010–2030),
because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel
use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the
fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa
and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road
vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC
emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to
NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and
East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in
the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future.
By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the
greatest fraction in Asia and the former USSR, while on-road vehicles make
the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for
NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most
regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive
technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a
robust and plausible projection of what future emissions may be. These
results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that
influence air quality, human health, and climate change. |
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