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| Titel |
Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands) |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Becerril, S. Bartolini, R. Sobradelo, J. Martí, J. M. Morales, I. Galindo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 7 ; Nr. 14, no. 7 (2014-07-28), S.1853-1870 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118548
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1853-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs,
is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To
ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard
assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include
the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the
characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic
studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a
densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors
per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the
Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the
youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption.
We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal
probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the
where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island
and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to
identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which
include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents
(PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result,
through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows,
pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative
integrated volcanic hazard map of the island. |
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