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| Titel |
Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Hudson, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, P. Bubeck, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 7 ; Nr. 14, no. 7 (2014-07-15), S.1731-1747 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118540
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1731-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important
component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient
damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation
potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage
mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for
sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ
between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures.
This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique
called propensity score matching (PSM) to a survey of German households along three
major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005, and 2006. The application of
this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures'
effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly
EUR 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness
estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still
very effective since they prevent between EUR 6700 and 14 000 of
flood damage per flood event. This study concludes with four main
recommendations regarding how to better apply propensity score matching in
future studies, and makes several policy recommendations. |
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