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| Titel |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Nussbaumer, Y. Schaub, C. Huggel, A. Walz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-27), S.1611-1624 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118508
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1611-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions.
Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence,
glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of
mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other
factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially
impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst
floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be
developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local
level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not
available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future
damage potential.
Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake
outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To
generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling
was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work.
Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use
changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use
driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and
two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in
the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study
underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on
land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural
measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake
outburst floods. |
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