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| Titel |
Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria in autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Buzzi, S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, D. Mastrangelo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 5 ; Nr. 14, no. 5 (2014-05-26), S.1325-1340 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118451
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1325-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The Liguria coastal region in Italy was affected by two heavy rainfall
episodes and subsequent severe flooding that occurred at the end of October
and the beginning of November 2011. In both cases, the very large accumulated
precipitation maxima were associated with intense and quasi-stationary
convective systems that developed near the coast, both related to orographic
lift and similar low-level mesoscale flow patterns over the Ligurian Sea,
giving rise to pronounced convergence lines.
This study aims at analysing the main dynamical processes responsible for the
onset, lifecycle, intensity and localisation/propagation of the precipitating
systems, using the ISAC convection-permitting model MOLOCH applied at
different spatial resolutions and comparing model output fields with
available observations. The ability of the model in quantitative
precipitation forecasting (QPF) is tested with respect to initial conditions
and model horizontal resolution. Although precipitation maxima remain
underestimated in the model experiments, it is shown that errors in QPF in
both amount and position tend to decrease with increasing grid resolution.
It is shown that model accuracy in forecasting rainfall amounts and
localisation of the precipitating systems critically depends on the ability
to represent the cold air outflow from the Po Valley to the Ligurian Sea,
which determines the position and intensity of the mesoscale convergence
lines over the sea. Such convergence lines controls, together with the
lifting produced by the Apennines chain surrounding the coast, the onset of
the severe convection. |
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