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| Titel |
A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, K. Thonicke |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2015-03-19), S.1813-1831 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117870
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-12-1813-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change
and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration
of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme
ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and
identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk
assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate
conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for
the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed
hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to
drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a
12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for
1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same
period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour;
ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed
method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in
Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected
value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem
behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable
to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the
hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated
in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems
are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first
model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed
method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for
which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set.
Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate
would be important next steps to test the approach. |
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