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| Titel |
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways |
| VerfasserIn |
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, A. Wiltshire |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 12, no. 5 ; Nr. 12, no. 5 (2015-03-03), S.1317-1338 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117839
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-12-1317-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of
land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of
climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of
climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run.
This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from
an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water
resources – for four different scenarios following the representative
concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st
century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial
ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs,
even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges
from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A
warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf
trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a
poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all
scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios
of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at
regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land
cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming
results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large
expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase
across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical
latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of
CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with
mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in
North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the
relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably
as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions. |
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