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| Titel |
A comparison of model simulations of Asian mega-droughts during the past millennium with proxy reconstructions |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Fallah, U. Cubasch |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2015-02-17), S.253-263 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117167
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-11-253-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Two PMIP3/CMIP5 climate model ensemble simulations of the past
millennium have been analysed to identify the occurrence of Asian
mega-droughts. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is used as
the key metric for the data comparison of hydro-climatological
conditions. The model results are compared with the proxy data of
the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Our study shows that global
circulation models (GCMs) are capable of capturing the majority of
historically recorded Asian monsoon failures at the right time and
with a comparable spatial distribution. The simulations indicate
that El Niño-like events lead, in most cases, to these droughts. Both
model simulations and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon
failures during the Little Ice Age. The results suggest
an influential impact of volcanic forcing on the atmosphere–ocean
interactions throughout the past millennium.
During historic mega-droughts of the past millennium, the monsoon
convection tends to assume
a preferred regime described as a "break" event in Asian
monsoon. This particular regime is coincident with a notable
weakening in the Pacific trade winds and Somali Jet. |
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