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| Titel |
Roles of initial ocean surface and subsurface states on successfully predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an intermediate coupled model |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Zheng, J. Zhu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 11, no. 1 ; Nr. 11, no. 1 (2015-02-06), S.187-194 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117134
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-11-187-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The 2006–2007 El Niño event, an unusually weak event, was predicted by
most models only after the warming in the eastern Pacific had commenced. In
this study, on the basis of an El Niño prediction system, roles of the
initial ocean surface and subsurface states on predicting the 2006–2007 El
Niño event are investigated to determine conditions favorable for
predicting El Niño growth and are isolated in three sets of hindcast
experiments. The hindcast is initialized through assimilation of only the
sea surface temperature (SST) observations to optimize the initial surface
condition, only the sea level (SL) data to update the initial subsurface
state, or both the SST and SL data. Results highlight that the hindcasts
with three different initial states can all successfully predict the
2006–2007 El Niño event 1 year in advance and that the hindcast
initialized by both the SST and SL data performs best. A comparison between
the various sets of hindcast results further demonstrates that successful
prediction is more significantly affected by the initial subsurface state
than by the initial surface condition. The accurate initial surface state
can trigger the easier prediction of the 2006–2007 El Niño, whereas a
more reasonable initial subsurface state can contribute to improving the
prediction in the growth of the warm event. |
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