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| Titel |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Drillet, J. M. Lellouche, B. Levier, M. Drévillon, O. Galloudec, G. Reffray, C. Régnier, E. Greiner, M. Clavier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6 (2014-12-12), S.1013-1029 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117098
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-10-1013-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts,
and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and
uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the
Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This
period is of interest for several reasons: (1) four Mercator Ocean
operational systems provide daily forecasts at a horizontal resolution of
1/4, 1/12 and 1/36° with different physics; (2) glider deployment
under the OSMOSIS project provides observation of the changes in mixed-layer
depth; (3) the ocean stratifies in May, but mixing events induced by gale
force wind are observed and forecast by the systems. Statistical scores and
forecast error quantification for each system and for the combined products
are presented. Skill scores indicate that forecasts are consistently better
than persistence, and temporal correlations between forecast and observations
are greater than 0.8 even for the 4-day forecast. The impact of atmospheric
forecast error, and for the wind field in particular (miss or time delay of a
wind burst forecast), is also quantified in terms of occurrence and intensity
of mixing or stratification events. |
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