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| Titel |
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Pérez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, S. P. Harrison |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 10, no. 2 ; Nr. 10, no. 2 (2014-03-20), S.551-568 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116938
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-10-551-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean
and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP)
simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation
regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total
amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak
in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert
characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the
Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly
simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in
the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and
underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce
the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated
magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the
correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a
reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward
expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn
rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in
summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the
Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring
precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased
growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models
underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in
the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on
midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no
relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the
midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in
Mediterranean climate. |
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