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| Titel |
Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming |
| VerfasserIn |
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, P. Huybrechts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2015-05-20), S.1039-1062 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116800
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-1039-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland
ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010), both
increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving
glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to
global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively.
Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by
both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these
projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal
lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the
marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general
circulation models and four representative concentration pathway
scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to
+16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios,
the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found
to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing
the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the
present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is
predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the
contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is
self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing
the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal
lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on
centennial timescales. Our projections show that the
observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply
be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of
a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our
results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises
from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change
projections, not from ice dynamics. |
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