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| Titel |
Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 2 ; Nr. 9, no. 2 (2015-03-27), S.587-601 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116771
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-587-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are rarely verified for
mountainous regions during the winter season, although avalanche forecasters
and other decision makers frequently rely on NWP models. Winter
precipitation from two NWP models (GEM-LAM and GEM15) and from a
precipitation analysis system (CaPA) was verified at approximately 100
stations in the mountains of western Canada and the north-western US.
Ultrasonic snow depth sensors and snow pillows were used to observe daily
precipitation amounts. For the first time, a detailed objective validation
scheme was performed highlighting many aspects of forecast quality. Overall,
the models underestimated precipitation amounts, although low precipitation
categories were overestimated. The finer resolution model GEM-LAM performed
best in all analysed aspects of model performance, while the precipitation
analysis system performed worst. An analysis of the economic value of large
precipitation categories showed that only mitigation measures with low
cost–loss ratios (i.e. measures that can be performed often) will benefit
from these NWP models. This means that measures with large associated costs
relative to anticipated losses when the measure is not performed should not
or not primarily depend on forecasted precipitation. |
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