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| Titel |
Assessing the uncertainty of glacier mass-balance simulations in the European Arctic based on variance decomposition |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Sauter, F. Obleitner |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 8, no. 12 ; Nr. 8, no. 12 (2015-12-10), S.3911-3928 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116703
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-8-3911-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| State-of-the-art numerical snowpack models essentially rely on observational
data for initialization, forcing, parametrization, and validation. Such data are
available in increasing amounts, but the propagation of related uncertainties
in simulation results has received rather limited attention so far. Depending
on their complexity, even small errors can have a profound effect on
simulations, which dilutes our confidence in the results. This paper aims at
quantification of the overall and fractional contributions of some archetypical
measurement uncertainties on snowpack simulations in arctic environments. The
sensitivity pattern is studied at two sites representing the accumulation and
ablation area of the Kongsvegen glacier (Svalbard), using the snowpack scheme
Crocus. The contribution of measurement errors on model output variance, either
alone or by interaction, is decomposed using global sensitivity analysis. This
allows one to investigate the temporal evolution of the fractional
contribution of different factors on key model output metrics, which provides a
more detailed understanding of the model's sensitivity pattern. The analysis
demonstrates that the specified uncertainties in precipitation and long-wave
radiation forcings had a strong influence on the calculated surface-height
changes and surface-energy balance components. The model output sensitivity
patterns also revealed some characteristic seasonal imprints. For example,
uncertainties in long-wave radiation affect the calculated surface-energy
balance throughout the year at both study sites,
while precipitation exerted the most influence during the winter and at the
upper site. Such findings are valuable for identifying critical parameters and
improving their measurement; correspondingly, updated simulations may shed
new light on the confidence of results from snow or glacier mass- and energy-balance models. This is relevant for many applications, for example in the fields of
avalanche and hydrological forecasting. |
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