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| Titel |
A new approach to mapping permafrost and change incorporating uncertainties in ground conditions and climate projections |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Zhang, I. Olthof, R. Fraser, S. A. Wolfe |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6 (2014-11-27), S.2177-2194 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116383
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-8-2177-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Spatially detailed information on permafrost distribution and change with
climate is important for land use planning, infrastructure development, and
environmental assessments. However, the required soil and surficial geology
maps in the North are coarse, and projected climate scenarios vary widely.
Considering these uncertainties, we propose a new approach to mapping
permafrost distribution and change by integrating remote sensing data, field
measurements, and a process-based model. Land cover types from satellite
imagery are used to capture the general land conditions and to improve the
resolution of existing permafrost maps. For each land cover type, field
observations are used to estimate the probabilities of different ground
conditions. A process-based model is used to quantify the evolution of
permafrost for each ground condition under three representative climate
scenarios (low, medium, and high warming). From the model results, the
probability of permafrost occurrence and the most likely permafrost
conditions are determined. We apply this approach at 20 m resolution to a
large area in Northwest Territories, Canada. Mapped permafrost conditions
are in agreement with field observations and other studies. The data
requirements, model robustness, and computation time are reasonable, and this
approach may serve as a practical means to mapping permafrost and changes at
high resolution in other regions. |
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