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| Titel |
Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region |
| VerfasserIn |
A. J. Wiltshire |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 8, no. 3 ; Nr. 8, no. 3 (2014-05-22), S.941-958 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116158
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-8-941-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region has a negative average
glacial mass balance for the present day despite anomalous possible gains in
the Karakoram. However, changes in climate over the 21st century may
influence the mass balance across the HKH. This study uses regional climate
modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on
precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated positive degree days
for the Hindu Kush (HK), Karakoram (KK), Jammu–Kashmir (JK), Himachal
Pradesh and West Nepal regions (HP), and East Nepal and Bhutan (NB). The
analysis focuses on the climate drivers of change rather than the
glaciological response. Presented is a complex regional pattern of climate
change, with a possible increase in snowfall over the western HKH and
decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable
than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions
combined with increases in the length of the seasonal melt period. From the
projected change in regional climate the possible implications for future
glacier mass balance are inferred. Overall, within the modelling framework
used here the eastern Himalayan glaciers (Nepal–Bhutan) are the most
vulnerable to climate change due to the decreased snowfall and increased
ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore
projected to decline over the 21st Century despite increasing precipitation.
The western glaciers (Hindu Kush, Karakoram) are expected to decline at a
slower rate over the 21st century in response to unmitigated climate compared
to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, regional climate change is highly
uncertain, especially in important cryospheric drivers such as snowfall
timing and amounts, which are poorly constrained by observations.
Data are available from the author on request. |
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