 |
| Titel |
Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty from a mesoscale WRF ensemble |
| VerfasserIn |
W. M. Angevine, J. Brioude, S. McKeen, J. S. Holloway |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1991-959X
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 6 ; Nr. 7, no. 6 (2014-12-02), S.2817-2829 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115786
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-2817-2014.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Lagrangian particle dispersion models require meteorological fields as input.
Uncertainty in the driving meteorology is one of the major uncertainties in
the results. The propagation of uncertainty through the system is not simple,
and it has not been thoroughly explored. Here, we take an ensemble approach. Six
different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model
drive otherwise identical simulations with FLEXPART-WRF for 49 days over
eastern North America. The ensemble spreads of wind speed, mixing height, and
tracer concentration are presented. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due
solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30–40%. Spatial and temporal
averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due
solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15–20%. These are lower bounds
on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in
the analysis. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|