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| Titel |
On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Bond-Lamberty, K. Calvin, A. D. Jones, J. Mao, P. Patel, X. Y. Shi, A. Thomson, P. Thornton, Y. Zhou |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 6 ; Nr. 7, no. 6 (2014-11-06), S.2545-2555 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115770
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-2545-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the
global scale, and the scope of these activities will change with both future
climate and socioeconomic decisions. This poses a significant challenge for
Earth system models (ESMs), which can incorporate land use change as
prescribed inputs but do not actively simulate the policy or economic forces
that drive land use change. One option to address this problem is to couple
an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model, but this
is challenging because of the radically different goals and underpinnings of
each type of model. This study describes the development and testing of a
coupling between the terrestrial carbon cycle of an ESM (CESM) and an
integrated assessment (GCAM) model, focusing on how CESM climate effects on
the carbon cycle could be shared with GCAM. We examine the best proxy
variables to share between the models, and we quantify how carbon flux changes
driven by climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use changes (e.g.,
deforestation) can be distinguished from each other by GCAM. The net primary
production and heterotrophic respiration outputs of the Community Land Model
(CLM), the land component of CESM, were found to be the most robust proxy
variables by which to recalculate GCAM's assumptions of equilibrium
ecosystem steady-state carbon. Carbon cycle effects of land use change are
spatially limited relative to climate effects, and thus we were able to
distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only
the latter to GCAM. This paper does not present results of a fully coupled
simulation but shows, using a series of offline CLM simulations and an
additional idealized Monte Carlo simulation, that our CESM–GCAM proxy
variables reflect the phenomena that we intend and do not contain erroneous
signals due to land use change. By allowing climate effects from a full ESM to
dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated
assessment model, this work will help link these models in a robust and
flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human
and Earth system processes. |
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