 |
| Titel |
Optimization of NWP model closure parameters using total energy norm of forecast error as a target |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Ollinaho, H. Järvinen, P. Bauer, M. Laine, P. Bechtold, J. Susiluoto, H. Haario |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1991-959X
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 5 ; Nr. 7, no. 5 (2014-09-02), S.1889-1900 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115710
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-1889-2014.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| We explore the use of dry total energy norm in improving numerical weather
prediction (NWP) model forecast skill. The Ensemble Prediction and Parameter
Estimation System (EPPES) is utilized to estimate ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM (global circulation models)
closure parameters related to clouds and precipitation. The target criterion
in the optimization is the dry total energy norm of 3-day forecast error
with respect to the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts) operational analyses. The results are summarized as
follows: (i) forecast error growth in terms of energy norm is slower in the
optimized than in the default model up to day 10 forecasts (and beyond),
(ii) headline forecast skill scores are improved in the training sample as
well as in independent samples, (iii) the decrease of the forecast error
energy norm at day three is mainly because of smaller kinetic energy error in
the tropics, and (iv) this impact is spread into midlatitudes at longer
ranges and appears as a smaller forecast error of potential energy. The
interpretation of these results is that the parameter optimization has
reduced the model error so that the forecasts remain longer in the vicinity
of the analyzed state. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|