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| Titel |
Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| VerfasserIn |
E. A. Irvine, K. P. Shine |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2015-09-02), S.555-568 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115476
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-555-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is
important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold
ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with
temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We
analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency
of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative
Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean,
annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7%
by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period
1979–2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where
air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar
regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of
around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is
driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern
Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS
frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent
not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions
there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual
mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may
have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to
contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic,
aircraft technology and flight routing. |
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