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| Titel |
Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, T. Yokohata |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2015-07-13), S.435-445 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115469
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-435-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation
biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global
vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model
Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five
global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration
pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission
scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the
most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100,
analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70
projected simulation sets. At the end of the simulation period, changes from
the year 2000 in all three variables varied considerably from net negative to
positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are
different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined
that in the global VegC and SOC projections, GVMs are the main influence on
uncertainties (60 % and 90 %, respectively) rather than
climate-driving scenarios (RCPs and GCMs). Moreover, the divergence of changes in
vegetation carbon residence times is dominated by GVM uncertainty,
particularly in the latter half of the 21st century. In addition, we found
that the contribution of each uncertainty source is spatiotemporally
heterogeneous and it differs among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty
source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The
contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division
becomes cooler (from ca. 80 % in the equatorial division to
40 % in the snow division). Our results suggest that to assess
climate change impacts on global ecosystem C cycling among each RCP scenario,
the long-term C dynamics within the ecosystems (i.e., vegetation turnover and
soil decomposition) are more critical factors than photosynthetic
processes. The different trends in the contribution of uncertainty sources in each
variable among climate divisions indicate that improvement of GVMs based on
climate division or biome type will be effective. On the other hand, in dry
regions, GCMs are the dominant uncertainty source in climate impact
assessments of vegetation and soil C dynamics. |
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