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| Titel |
Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record |
| VerfasserIn |
G. R. Werf, A. J. Dolman |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 5, no. 2 ; Nr. 5, no. 2 (2014-10-30), S.375-382 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115371
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-5-375-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The instrumental surface air temperature record has been used in several
statistical studies to assess the relative role of natural and anthropogenic
drivers of climate change. The results of those studies varied considerably,
with anthropogenic temperature trends over the past 25–30 years suggested to
range from 0.07 to 0.20 °C decade−1. In this short
communication, we assess the origin of these differences and highlight the
inverse relation between the temperature trend of the past 30 years and the
weight given to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an
explanatory factor in the multiple linear regression (MLR) tool that is
usually employed. We highlight that robust MLR outcomes require a better
understanding of the AMO in general and, more specifically, of its
characterization. Our results indicate that both the high and the low end of
the anthropogenic trend over the past 30 years found in previous studies are
unlikely and that a transient climate response of 1.6 (1.0–3.3) °C
best captures the historic instrumental temperature record. |
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