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| Titel |
Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system |
| VerfasserIn |
M. D. A. Rounsevell, A. Arneth, P. Alexander, D. G. Brown, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Ellis, J. Finnigan, K. Galvin, N. Grigg, I. Harman, J. Lennox, N. Magliocca, D. Parker, B. C. O'Neill, P. H. Verburg, O. Young |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 5, no. 1 ; Nr. 5, no. 1 (2014-02-26), S.117-137 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115298
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-5-117-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the
interactions and feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical
processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the
climate system is an important example. LULCC contributes to global and
regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of
terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly
represented in global circulation models (GCMs). LULCC models that are
explicit about human behaviour and decision-making processes have been
developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these
approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that
deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate
system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling
and the interactions between LULCC, GCMs and dynamic global vegetation
models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC
representations in Earth system models. We conclude that LULCC models need
to better conceptualise the alternatives for upscaling from the local to
global scale. This involves better representation of human agency, including
processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the
role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and
policy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of
teleconnections and connectivity across global networks. Our analysis
underlines the importance of observational data in global-scale assessments
and the need for coordination in synthesising and assimilating available data. |
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