 |
| Titel |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of Dome Fuji ice core |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Nakano, K. Suzuki, K. Kawamura, F. Parrenin, T. Higuchi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
2198-5634
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions ; 2, no. 3 ; Nr. 2, no. 3 (2015-06-26), S.939-968 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115178
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npgd-2-939-2015.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| A technique for estimating the age–depth relationship in an ice core
and evaluating its uncertainty is presented.
The age–depth relationship is mainly determined by the accumulation
of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process
due to the horizontal stretching and vertical compression of ice layers.
However, since neither the accumulation process nor the thinning process
are fully understood, it is essential to incorporate observational
information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning
processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth
is estimated from age markers and δ18O data.
The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo
(PMCMC) method, in which the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method is combined
with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method.
In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters
in the models for the accumulation and thinning processes are
computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood
is obtained with the SMC method.
Meanwhile, the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth
is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method
with Metropolis iterations.
The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age–depth relationship
without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity.
The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying
it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|