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| Titel |
Potential changes of wave steepness and occurrence of rogue waves |
| VerfasserIn |
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen, Alessandro Toffoli |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250114542
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-15330.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Wave steepness is an important characteristic of a sea state. It is also well established that
wave steepness is one of the parameter responsible for generation of abnormal waves called
also freak or rogue waves. The study investigates changes of wave steepness in the
past and future wave climate in the North Atlantic. The fifth assessment report
IPCC (2013) uses four scenarios for future greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Two of these scenarios
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 have been selected to project future wave conditions in the
North Atlantic. RCP 4.5 is believed to achieve the political target of a maximum
global mean temperature increase of 2°ÂC while RPC 8.5 is close to “business as
usual” and expected to give a temperature increase of 4°ÂC or more. The analysis
includes total sea, wind sea and swell. Potential changes of wave steepness for
these wave systems are shown and compared with wave steepness derived from
historical data. Three historical data sets with different wave model resolutions are
used. The investigations show also changes in the mean wind direction as well
as in the relative direction between wind sea and swell. Consequences of wave
steepness changes for statistics of surface elevation and generation of rogue waves are
demonstrated. Uncertainties associated with wave steepness projections are discussed. |
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