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| Titel |
Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system |
| VerfasserIn |
Joan Bech, Marc Berenguer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250113725
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-13945.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892).
References
Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024
Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007
Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 532-549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM433.1
Berenguer M, D Sempere, G Pegram, 2011: SBMcast - An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian extrapolation. Journal of Hydrology 404: 226-240 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.033 |
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