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| Titel |
Carbon sequestration potential and climatic effects of reforestation in an Earth system model |
| VerfasserIn |
Sebastian Sonntag, Julia Pongratz, Christian Reick, Hauke Schmidt |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250113499
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-13707.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Studies on the global climatic effects of afforestation have mainly focused on the carbon
sequestration potential of plausible scenarios while neglecting biogeophysical effects or were
based on highly idealised afforestation scenarios. Here we assess the reduction
potential for the atmospheric CO2 concentration and possible consequences for
the global climate of following a strong reforestation scenario during this century
taking into account both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. We perform
simulations using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model
(MPI-ESM), forced by anthropogenic emissions according to the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but using land use transitions according to RCP 4.5.
Thereby we are able to isolate the effects of land use changes in this scenario in which
agricultural intensification leads to abandonment of agricultural areas and a regrowth of
forest of about 8 million km2 in our model. We find that this reforestation reduces
the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 85 ppm by the end of the century as
compared to RCP 8.5. This value is higher than previous estimates for plausible
reforestation scenarios, mostly because the CO2 fertilisation effect on the terrestrial
vegetation has not been accounted for in previous studies. Due to the lower CO2
concentration the global mean temperature increase is reduced by about 0.27 K.
Regionally the simulated effect may exceed 2 K, but the largest annual mean cooling
signal occurs in only sparsely populated regions. Concerning temperature extremes,
however, the effect can also be large in densely populated areas, mostly caused by local
biogeophysical effects of the vegetation changes. Thus, we conclude that the mitigation
potential of reforestation is higher than previously thought, the need for adaptation in
many regions of the world is still strong, but temperature extremes may be reduced. |
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