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| Titel |
Monthly water balance model for climate change analysis in agriculture with R |
| VerfasserIn |
Péter Kalicz, András Herceg, Zoltán Gribovszki |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250112871
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-13055.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| For Hungary regional climate models projections suggest a warmer climate and some
changes in annual precipitation distribution. These changes force the whole agrarian sector to
consider the traditional cropping technologies. This situation is more serious in forestry
because some forest populations are on their xeric distributional limits (Gálos et. al,
2014). Additionally, a decision has an impact sometimes longer than one hundred
years.
To support the stakeholder there is a project which develops a GIS (Geographic
Information System) based decision support system. Hydrology plays significant role
in this system because water is often one of the most important limiting factor in
Hungary.
A modified Thorntwaite-type monthly water balance model was choosen to produce
hydrological estimations for the GIS modules. This model is calibrated with the available
data between 2000 and 2008. Beside other meteorological data we used mainly an
actual evapotranspiration map in the calibration phase, which was derived with the
Complementary-relationship-based evapotranspiration mapping (CREMAP; Szilágyi and
Kovács, 2011) technique.
The calibration process is pixel based and it has several stochastic steps. We try to find a
flexible solution for the model implementation which easy to automatize and can be integrate
in GIS systems. The open source R programming language was selected which well
satisfied these demands. The result of this development is summarized as an R
package.
This publication has been supported by AGRARKLIMA.2 VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034
project.
References
Gálos B., Antal V., Czimber K., Mátyás Cs. (2014) Forest ecosystems, sewage works
and droughts – possibilities for climate change adaptation. In: Santamarta J.C.,
Hernandez-Gutiérrez L.E., Arraiza M.P. (eds) 2014. Natural Hazards and Climate
Change/Riesgos Naturales y Cambio Climático. Madrid: Colegio de Ingenieros de Montes.
ISBN 978-84-617-1060-7, D.L. TF 565-2014, 91–104 pp
Szilágyi J., Kovács Á. (2011) A calibration-free evapotranspiration mapping technique for
spatially-distributed regional-scale hydrologic modeling, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 59, 2011, 2,
118–130. |
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