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| Titel |
Reliability of predicting the number of frost days in the MiKlip decadal prediction system |
| VerfasserIn |
Igor Kröner, Henning Rust, Tim Kruschke, Uwe Ulbrich |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250112785
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-12962.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| As decadal predictions are gaining more and more attention among for decision makers, it is
essential that these predictions are reliable, i.e. that they “mean what they say”. A popular
prediction setting for the decadal scale is the probability of exceedances of threshold, e.g. the
probability for the number of frost days (days with minimum temperature below 0°C) in a
certain region exceeding the climatological median or the 2nd tercile. These probabilistic
forecasts of dichotomous events (e.g., the probability of exceeding a threshold) are
typically verified with the Brier Score. Its decomposition leads to the attributes
diagram, an elegant graphical representation of the essential information needed for
verification, such as the reliability. Within the frame of Germany’s national initative for
decadal predictions (MiKlip), we analyze the reliability of ensemble hindcasts for the
number of frost days. The ensemble hindcasts stem from the Max-Planck-Institute’s
Earth System Model in a low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR). Hindcast
verification is carried out for different setups of the model initialisation. Apart from
investigating various spatial and temporal aggregation scales for the number of
frost days, we compare different ways to quantify and communicate reliability to
stakeholders using a discrete set of categories (e.g., reliable, skillful, potential useful,
etc.) |
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