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| Titel |
Probabilistic evaluation of oceanic and atmospheric predictions using the MiKlip system |
| VerfasserIn |
Sophie Stolzenberger, Rita Glowienka-Hense, Thomas Spangehl, Marc Schroeder, Andreas Hense |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250111572
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-11705.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The German research programme MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen) has developed a system for decadal climate predictions. This contribution looks at the probabilistic evaluation of the ocean and the atmosphere using the MiKlip prediction system. The simulations are based on the MPI-ESM model output (LR/MR) of the baseline 0 and baseline 1 MiKlip system which differ in the way the initial conditions in atmosphere and ocean are generated. As basis observational data we include ORAS4, ERA40 and ERA-INTERIM reanalyses from ECMWF for the period 1961-2009. We analyse multi-year averages of sea water potential temperature as well as atmospheric temperature. The results show that for prediction year 2-5 there are areas of positive skill in the ocean until 3,000 m depth which are also robust and comparable in strength but not in pattern to mid and upper tropospheric temperatures. These predictable signals seem to be almost lost for prediction year 7-10. The skill of the different baseline experiments will be compared and assessed. |
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