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| Titel |
Understanding how the value of physically-based models depends on data availability for the prediction of drought indices |
| VerfasserIn |
Jude Lubega Musuuza, Thorsten Wagener, Jim Freer, Ross Woods, Nicholas Howden, Chris Hutton, Gemma Coxon |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250111033
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-11094.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Droughts are the most expensive natural disaster that can last from a few months to
decades. They are mainly driven by precipitation deficits but are often transmitted to
the soil and groundwater compartments. Observed data is not always available for
drought-related studies, which makes it inevitable to use model outputs as proxies
for the data. However, such outputs depend on the quality of the available input
data, specifically their measurement accuracy and spatial and temporal resolutions.
The exercise of data collection can be very expensive and time consuming and,
even after it is collected, data handling and storage can pose serious challenges.
The assimilation of sub-grid (and possibly imperfectly-sampled data) demands
increased model complexity, but may also add to the sources of uncertainty. The high
complexity of sub-grid equations increases the number of parameters and renders the
solution strategy tedious without guaranteed improvements in predictions compared to
simpler models. In this study we utilise sensitivity analysis to assess the impact
of the different catchment characteristics on output precision and accuracy in the
experimental Plynlimon catchment located in Wales. We want to understand how
data availability changes the value of using a physically-based catchment model
for the prediction of drought indices in temperate environments such as the UK. |
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