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| Titel |
Climatic change projections for winter streamflow in Guadalquivir river |
| VerfasserIn |
María Jesús Esteban Parra, José Manuel Hidalgo Muñoz, Matilde García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Sonia Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Yolanda Castro Díez |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250110381
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-10375.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this work we have obtained climate change projections for winter streamflow of the
Guadalquivir River in the period 2071-2100 using the Principal Component Regression
(PCR) method.
The streamflow data base used has been provided by the Center for Studies and
Experimentation of Public Works, CEDEX. Series from gauging stations and reservoirs with
less than 10% of missing data (filled by regression with well correlated neighboring stations)
have been considered. The homogeneity of these series has been evaluated through the Pettit
test and degree of human alteration by the Common Area Index. The application of these
criteria led to the selection of 13 streamflow time series homogeneously distributed
over the basin, covering the period 1952-2011. For this streamflow data, winter
seasonal values were obtained by averaging the monthly values from January to
March.
The PCR method has been applied using the Principal Components of the mean
anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) in winter (December to February averaged) as
predictors of streamflow for the development of a downscaled statistical model. The SLP
database is the NCEP reanalysis covering the North Atlantic region, and the calibration
and validation periods used for fitting and evaluating the ability of the model are
1952-1992 and 1993-2011, respectively. In general, using four Principal Components,
regression models are able to explain up to 70% of the variance of the streamflow
data.
Finally, the statistical model obtained for the observational data was applied to the SLP
data for the period 2071-2100, using the outputs of different GCMs of the CMIP5 under the
RPC8.5 scenario. The results found for the end of the century show no significant changes or
moderate decrease in the streamflow of this river for most GCMs in winter, but for some of
them the decrease is very strong.
Keywords: Statistical downscaling, streamflow, Guadalquivir River, climate
change.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain)
and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). |
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