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| Titel |
Deterministic and Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction for Atlantic Canada With Lead Times of Hours to Ten Days |
| VerfasserIn |
Natacha Bernier, Keith Thompson |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250107545
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-7249.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS
respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The
surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively.
The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10Âm winds generated by operational
global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the
Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013
to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the
difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in
forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists
beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The
usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for
coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in
shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the
RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an
important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display
are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS
to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels. |
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