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| Titel |
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation in ash concentration simulations and tephra deposit daily forecasted at Mt. Etna, in Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
Michele Prestifilippo, Simona Scollo, Stefano Tarantola |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250107087
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-6777.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts may depend on our knowledge of the model input
parameters and our capability to represent the dynamic of an incoming eruption. Forecasts
help governments to reduce risks associated with volcanic eruptions and for this
reason different kinds of analysis that help to understand the effect that each input
parameter has on model outputs are necessary. We present an iterative approach
based on the sequential combination of sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation
procedure and Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis, applied to the lagrangian
volcanic ash dispersal model PUFF. We modify the main input parameters as the total
mass, the total grain-size distribution, the plume thickness, the shape of the eruption
column, the sedimentation models and the diffusion coefficient, perform thousands of
simulations and analyze the results. The study is carried out on two different Etna
scenarios: the sub-plinian eruption of 22 July 1998 that formed an eruption column
rising 12 km above sea level and lasted some minutes and the lava fountain eruption
having features similar to the 2011-2013 events that produced eruption column
high up to several kilometers above sea level and lasted some hours. Sensitivity
analyses and uncertainty estimation results help us to address the measurements that
volcanologists should perform during volcanic crisis to reduce the model uncertainty. |
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