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| Titel |
The effect of wind and eruption source parameter variations on tephra fallout hazard assessment: an example from Vesuvio (Italy) |
| VerfasserIn |
Giovanni Macedonio, Antonio Costa, Simona Scollo, Augusto Neri |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250107010
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-6697.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Uncertainty in the tephra fallout hazard assessment may depend on different meteorological
datasets and eruptive source parameters used in the modelling. We present a statistical study
to analyze this uncertainty in the case of a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius of VEI
= 4, column height of 18 km and total erupted mass of 5 x 1011 kg. The hazard
assessment for tephra fallout is performed using the advection-diffusion model Hazmap.
Firstly, we analyze statistically different meteorological datasets: i) from the daily
atmospheric soundings of the stations located in Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976
and between 1996 and 2012, and in Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1996
and 2012; ii) from numerical weather prediction models of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration and of the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts. Furthermore, we modify the total mass, the total grain-size
distribution, the eruption column height, and the diffusion coefficient. Then, we
quantify the impact that different datasets and model input parameters have on the
probability maps. Results shows that the parameter that mostly affects the tephra fallout
probability maps, keeping constant the total mass, is the particle terminal settling
velocity, which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and
shape. Differently, the evaluation of the hazard assessment weakly depends on the
use of different meteorological datasets, column height and diffusion coefficient. |
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