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| Titel |
Quantifying the role of Northern Eurasia in global CO2, CH4, and water dynamics during the 21st Century |
| VerfasserIn |
Qianlai Zhuang, David Kicklighter, Yongxia Cai, Nadja Tchebakova, Jerry Melillo, John Reilly, Andrei Sokolov, Andrey Sirin |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250106966
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-6651.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in
Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The
changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover and biogeochemical cycles in
the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as
humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes,
however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental
changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and
global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography,
biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced
vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change and carbon
cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale,
while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops due to increasing
population and associated economic development, the climate-induced vegetation
shifts in Northern Eurasia also significantly affect global land use and result in a
global cumulative carbon sink of about 63 Pg C under the policy scenario that limits
CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st
century. In comparison with the policy scenario, under a no-policy scenario where
CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century,
the global cumulative carbon sink is 11 Pg C less mainly due to carbon lost from
global grasslands. Cumulative evapotranspiration from global terrestrial ecosystems
considering global land-use changes with vegetation shifts in northern Eurasia is 8.05
and 8.35 million km3 for the policy and no-policy scenarios, respectively. In the
presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on CH4 emissions from northern
Eurasia in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this century. |
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