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| Titel |
Using historical data to make regional climate projections to 2100 |
| VerfasserIn |
Raphael Hébert, Shaun Lovejoy, Anne de Vernal, Lenin Del Rio Amador |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250101236
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-987.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The relationship between temperature and anthropogenic forcing, CO2 in particular, is so
strong that the decomposition of climate variability into stochastic natural and deterministic
anthropogenic components is quite accurate. The forcing due to either the actual CO2 or
CO2EQ, that is the equivalent radiative forcing in CO2 of anthropogenic effects, leads to an
increasing trend whose proportionality coefficient corresponds to the “effective climate
sensitivity” or the “effective equivalent climate sensitivity” respectively i.e. the actual
temperature sensitivity to the historical anthropogenic forcings. We estimate these effective
climate sensitivities for local series of monthly gridded historical temperature records:
HadCRUT4, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NOAA National Climatic
Data Center. This allows us to establish long term regional empirical projections of
expected anthropogenic warming up to the target period 2081-2100, following the
Radiative Carbon Pathways, RCP, scenarios. This approach is complementary to GCM
projections and we compare the two. This approach is based on observations and
implies only a limited number of parameters and assumptions, providing results
completely independent from those obtained through GCMs. Our results indicate a
global effective climate sensitivity of 2.06 ± 0.23°C per doubling of CO2EQ. |
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