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| Titel |
Beyond Climate Sensitivities: Climate Response And Prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
Francesco Ragone, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250100786
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-16782.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Response theory provides formidable methods for addressing many problems
in statistical mechanics. Recently, it has been proposed as a gateway for the
provision of a rigorous conceptual framework for computing climate response
to a variety of forcings. In this contribution, we would like to present some new
results showing for the first time how one can use linear response theory to
effectively predict the impact of the increase of the CO2 concentration on
selected climatic observables in a General Circulation Model of the
atmosphere. We also show how this framework allows to put on firm
theoretical ground the operational definitions of Climate Sensitivity, and to
address rigorously the problem of predicting climate response at different
time-scales. Given its prognostic and diagnostic power, we believe that the
proposed approach constitutes a mathematically rigorous and practically
effective way to approach the problem of climate change assessment from a
radically new perspective. |
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