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| Titel |
Towards a climate impact assessment of the Tarim River, NW China: integrated hydrological modelling using SWIM |
| VerfasserIn |
Michel Wortmann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250100313
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-16230.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Tarim River is the principle water source of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous
Region, NW China and the country’s largest endorheic river, terminating in the
Taklamakan desert. The vast majority of discharge is generated in the glaciated
mountain ranges to the north (Tian Shan), south (Kunlun Shan/Tibetan Plateau)
and west (Pamir Mountains) of the Taklamakan desert. The main water user is the
intensive irrigation agriculture for mostly cotton and fruit production in linear river
oases of the middle and lower reaches as well as a population of 10 Mil. people.
Over the past 40 years, an increase in river discharge was reported, assumed to
be caused by enhanced glacier melt due to a warming climate. Rapid population
growth and economic development have led to a significant expansion of area under
irrigation, resulting in water shortages for downstream users and the floodplain
vegetation.
Water resource planning and management of the Tarim require integrated assessment
tools to examine changes under future climate change, land use and irrigation scenarios. The
development of such tools, however, is challenged by sparse climate and discharge data as
well as available data on water abstractions and diversions.
The semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water
Integrated Model) was implemented for the headwater and middle reaches that generate over
90% of discharge, including the Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant rivers. It includes the
representation of snow and glacier melt as well as irrigation abstractions. Once
calibrated and validated to river discharge, the model is used to analyse future climate
scenarios provided by one physically-based and one statistical regional climate model
(RCM).
Preliminary results of the model calibration and validation indicate that SWIM is able
simulate river discharge adequately, despite poor data conditions. Snow and glacier melt
account for the largest share in river discharge. The modelling results will devise sustainable
management options for given climate change scenarios with the aim to balance water
availability and water use for the basin as a whole and specifically for the riparian ecology. |
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