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| Titel |
Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
Marta Martin del Rey, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Irene Polo |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250100048
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-15929.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Atlantic and Pacific oceans present their own El Niño phenomenon. In the last years, several works have demonstrated an interbasin connection between both phenomena, in a way that an Atlantic Niño is related to an opposite phase of its Pacific counterpart. Moreover, maximum Atlantic SST anomalies take place 6 months before the maximum Pacific ones and the summer Atlantic Niño is able to alter the Equatorial Pacific windstress, triggering the dynamical mechanisms that enhance the evolution of an opposite Pacific Niño phase. As the Atlantic Niño is able to predict the winter Pacific La Niña, an statistical model using MCA analysis is defined to predict the Pacific dynamical mechanisms associated with an Atlantic forcing. Moreover, as recent works have put forward that this connection only takes place modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), showing up under its negative phase, this work demostrates that the skill of the statistical model is better when the model only considers these decades. In addition, using the regression coefficient of the model calculated for those decades, the model is able to predict the Pacific El Niño that takes place in other decades of negative AMO phase.A hindcast is done and crossvalidated showing how the prediction of the origin and evolution of El Niño can be done,using the Atlantic Equatorial mode under negative AMO phase as the predictor field. |
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