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| Titel |
Decadal climate variability and forced change in the South Europe - Mediterranean Region |
| VerfasserIn |
Annarita Mariotti, Yutong Pan, Ning Zeng, Andrea Alessandri |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250099804
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-15630.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean/South Europe region since 1860 and
projected 21st century change are investigated based on observational data and the
newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5)
experiments. Our results suggest that decadal changes in surface air temperature and
related water cycle changes (e.g. evaporation) observed in the region during the period
since 1860 have been significantly affected by forcings, be of natural or anthropic
origin. Warming has accelerated during the latter half of the 20th century and is
projected to further increase due to growing greenhouse gas concentrations. Due to
the significant trend, Mediterranean temperature for the coming decade is very likely to
be warmer than 1980-2005 and outside the range of variability, with a mean warming
of 2 K projected by 2060. Sea-surface evaporation (fresh water deficit) has increased
during past decades and future forced increases are expected to exceed variability by
2020-2040 (in the coming decade). By 2071-2100, temperature (sea-surface
evaporation and fresh water deficit) mean forced changes are estimated to be 4 (2)
times larger than decade-to-decade anomalies due to internal variability. 20th century
precipitation variability in the Mediterranean has been largely of internal origin. 20th
century simulations and future projections show an increasing impact of external
forcings in the form of long-term negative trends over most of the Mediterranean in the
midst of internal variability. In JJA, forced precipitation change is projected to exceed
internal variability by 2040. More generally, projections indicate that in the 21st century
decade-to-decade conditions may still occasionally be wetter than what we have seen
during 1980-2005 but there is an overall progressive shift in the odds for conditions to
be drier. |
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