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| Titel |
Analysis of climate change effects on runoff conditions of two small catchments using climate-runoff models |
| VerfasserIn |
Gergely Csóka, Gábor Béla Brolly, Kornél Czimber, Borbála Gálos, Péter Kalicz, Zoltán Gribovszki |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250099456
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-15237.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Nowadays global climate change is one of the most discussed scientific topic. According
to prognosis (both optimistic and pessimistic) Hungarian economy will have to
deal with serious difficulties in consequence of air temperature and precipitation
changes.
Preparing for climate change inducing problems in this paper climate-runoff (Budyko
type) models were employed for two small catchments (Béci- and Kürtös-creek) in South
Western Hungary. There were trusty long term runoff and precipitation time series, as
well as spatially-distributed precipitation and evapotranspiration maps (validated
by locally measured precipitation and runoff data) available. The climate change
dataset was calculated on the basis of the prognosis of twelve regional climate
models.
Spatially-distributed calibration parameter of Budyko-model was calculated by using
temperature, precipitation and areal ET maps. The parameter map aggregates all of
the factors affecting ET. This map is used for evaluating future ET and runoff in
spatially-distributed mode.
In spite of the fact results have some inaccuracy, in the order of magnitude they reliably
show that annual runoff of analysed catchments will have strong recession (46% for Béci and
51% for Kürtös creek) to the end of the 21st century.
This publication has been supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 project.
The research of Zoltán Gribovszki was supported by the European Union and the State of
Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP 4.2.4.
A/2-11-1-2012-0001 ’National Excellence Program’. |
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