 |
| Titel |
Climate Change Impact on Various Land Cover Types Water Balance in South Western Hungary |
| VerfasserIn |
Péter Csáki, Gábor Béla Brolly, Kornél Czimber, Péter Kalicz, Balázs Kisfaludy, Zoltán Gribovszki |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250099236
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-14993.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Water balance of Zala county (South Western Hungary) was analyzed using remote-sensing
based evapotranspiration (ET) 1-km spatial resolution maps for Hungary by Szilagyi and
Kovacs over the 1999-2008 period [Szilagyi J., Kovacs A., 2011: A calibration-free
evapotranspiration mapping technique for spatially-distributed regional-scale hydrologic
modeling. J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 59, 2011, 2, 118–130.].
Mean (1999-2008 period) annual evapotranspiration and runoff (as the difference of
precipitation and evapotranspiration: R = P - ET) were analyzed in the context of land cover
types (artificial surfaces, agricultural areas, forest and semi natural areas, wetlands, water
bodies). The average ET of Zala county was 581 mm/year, it was more than 89
percent of the mean annual precipitation (650 mm/year). The highest mean annual ET
values (1999-2008) determined for water bodies and wetlands. Forest and semi
natural areas had higher mean annual value than agricultural areas, the lowest rate
belonged to artificial surfaces. The maximum ET value was very high in case of
water bodies (845 mm) as well as forest and semi natural areas (828 mm). Runoff
was the largest on artificial surfaces (89 mm/year), and it was especially low for
wetlands.
Spatially-distributed calibration parameter of Budyko-model (alfa) was calculated by
using temperature, precipitation and ET values. Another parameter, beta (which gives the
relationship between pan-evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration) was calculated
for those pixels, where the ET value was higher than the precipitation value, because the
Budyko-type model for such type of pixels is not valid. The two parameter maps
(alfa and beta) aggregate all of the factors affecting ET, dominantly the surface
cover. They can be used for evaluating future ET and runoff in spatially-distributed
mode.
ET and runoff predictions have been done for three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070,
2071-2100) using the parameter maps (alfa and beta) and future data of climate models (mean
annual temperature and precipitation). According to the predictions, about 3 Celsius mean
annual temperature rising and 25 mm precipitation decreasing can be expected
to the end of the 21st century. Thus the mean annual ET is increasing (from 577
mm/year to 604 mm/year) and the runoff is significantly decreasing (from 78 mm/year
to 27 mm/year, from 12 to 4 percent of the precipitation) to the end of the 21st
century.
This publication has been supported by TAMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 project.
The research of Zoltan Gribovszki was supported by the European Union and the State of
Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TAMOP 4.2.4.
A/2-11-1-2012-0001 ’National Excellence Program’.
Keywords: evapotranspiration, runoff, land cover, Budyko-model, climate change |
|
|
|
|
|
|