| A study [1] of the coherent noise model [2-4] in natural time [5-7] has shown that it exhibits
predictability. Interestingly, one of the predictors suggested [1] for the coherent noise model
can be generalized and applied to the case of (real) aftershock sequences. The results
obtained [8] so far are beyond chance. Here, we apply this approach to several aftershock
sequences of strong earthquakes with magnitudes Mw ≥6.9 in Indonesia, California and
Greece, including the Mw9.2 earthquake that occurred on 26 December 2004 in
Sumatra.
References.
[1] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Predictability of the coherent-noise model
and its applications, Physical Review E, 85, 051136, 2012.
[2] M.E.J. Newman, Self-organized criticality, evolution and the fossil extinction record,
Proc. R. Soc. London B, 263, 1605-1610, 1996.
[3] M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Avalanches, scaling, and coherent noise, Phys. Rev.
E, 54, 6226–6231, 1996.
[4] K. Sneppen and M. Newman, Coherent noise, scale invariance and intermittency in
large systems, Physica D, 110, 209 – 222.
[5] P. Varotsos, N. Sarlis, and E. Skordas, Spatiotemporal complexity aspects on the
interrelation between Seismic Electric Signals and seismicity, Practica of Athens Academy,
76, 294-321, 2001.
[6] P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, and E.S. Skordas, Long-range correlations in the electric
signals that precede rupture, Phys. Rev. E, 66, 011902, 2002.
[7] Varotsos P. A., Sarlis N. V. and Skordas E. S., Natural Time Analysis: The new view
of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series
(Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg) 2011.
[8] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, "Visualization of the significance of Receiver
Operating Characteristics based on confidence ellipses", Computer Physics Communications,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2013.12.009 |