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Titel |
Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK-Norway Renewable Power System |
VerfasserIn |
Caroline Ely, David Brayshaw, John Methven, James Cox, Oliver Pearce |
Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
Datensatznummer |
250097671
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Publikation (Nr.) |
EGU/EGU2014-13275.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
Wind power capacity in the UK is increasing, and new transmission links are proposed with
Norway where electricity is primarily produced through hydroelectric generation. The impact
of climate variability on such an interconnected power system incorporating different
renewable sources therefore merits investigation. This study examines the effect of the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant large-scale pattern of atmospheric variability
affecting northern Europe, on an integrated UK-Norway power system with growing reliance
on wind power.
Wind and temperature data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948-2010) are used to
model demand and wind power using simple models. ‘Demand net wind’ (DNW) is
estimated for positive, neutral, and negative NAO, focusing on March when Norwegian
hydropower reserves approach their minimum and the combined system might be
most susceptible to meteorological variations. It is found that the cold and still
conditions associated with the NAO negative state (compared to NAO positive or
neutral) result in greater demand and decreased wind production. The resulting
increase in DNW in NAO negative relative to NAO neutral, under a 2020 power
system scenario, would be equivalent to an approximately 25% increase in the
present-day rate of Norwegian hydropower usage during March. This represents a marked
increase in the magnitude of the power system’s sensitivity to NAO variability. |
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