 |
| Titel |
Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research |
| VerfasserIn |
Hiroyuki Ishida, Shota Kobayashi, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Shinjiro Kanae, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yonghee Shin, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Toshihiko Masui, Akemi Tanaka, Yasushi Honda |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250096529
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-12036.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various
factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden
attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food
crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood
underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering
the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We
used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products
(GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions
constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A
regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU)
was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A
logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a
global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two
regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total
DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic
scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it
slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either
scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the
impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but,
on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future
health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health
burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter
uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the
result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived
from the difference in 12 GCMs is the smallest in the framework of this study. |
|
|
|
|
|
|