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| Titel |
Decadal predictability of frost days in the MPI-ESM-LR model |
| VerfasserIn |
Igor Kröner, Tim Kruschke, Henning W. Rust, Uwe Ulbrich |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250096456
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11963.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The number of frost days (days with minimum temperature below 0°C) is a typical index for
cold temperature extremes defined by the Joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). It’s predictability on inter-annual to
decadal time scales bears economic and societal relevance, e.g. as basis for energy or
agricultural policy planning.
As part of the MiKlip initiative for decadal prediction, annually initialised ensemble
hindcast experiments with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in a low resolution
configuration (MPI-ESM-LR, T63L47) have been carried out. For a period of 35
years (1961-1995) we analyze the number of frost days per season and grid point
on a 5° x 5° longitude-latitude grid for the northern hemisphere stemming from
ten/three ensemble member hindcasts produced with two different initialisation
strategies. The ensembles are interpreted as probabilistic predictions of historically
equiprobable three-category events (below normal, normal, above normal) and as such
are compared to frost day counts from HadEx2 and the 20th Century Reanalysis.
Prediction skill over climatological forecasts and uninitialised climate projections is
assessed for various lead times using the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS). |
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