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| Titel |
Can we detect a forced trend in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation? |
| VerfasserIn |
Chris Roberts, Laura Jackson, Doug McNeall |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250096008
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11488.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N weakened by -0.53 Sv/yr
between April 2004 and October 2012. To assess whether this trend is inconsistent with the
expected ‘noise’ in the climate system, we compare the observed trend with estimates of
internal variabilty derived from 14 control simulations from the Climate Model
Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). An initial comparison reveals that the observed trend is
extremely unusual (or out of range) in most models; however, all 14 models underestimate
AMOC variability on interannual time scales. To account for this bias, we scale model
estimates of internal variability such that variances on interannual time scales are in
agreement with observations. Following this adjustment to variances, the probability
of the observed AMOC trend occuring due to internal variability is greater than
1% for all models. For this reason, we conclude that the observed AMOC trend is
not significantly (p = 0.01) different from that expected due to internal variability. |
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