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| Titel |
Evaluating Aerosol Trends from 1960 to 2010 using HadGEM3-UKCA and EMEP Data |
| VerfasserIn |
Steven Turnock, Dominick Spracklen, Ken Carslaw, Graham Mann, Matthew Woodhouse, Piers Forster, Jim Haywood |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095885
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11361.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Atmospheric aerosols are an important component of the Earth system, interacting strongly
with the Earth’s radiative balance and climate. Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosol
emissions (and their precursors) have occurred in the last few decades with further large
changes projected in the future. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and
the impact on climate are poorly constrained. Studies using detailed aerosol chemistry
climate models and evaluation against observed changes over the latter half of the 20th
Century are currently lacking.
We use the HadGEM3-UKCA coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate changes in
atmospheric aerosol concentrations over the period 1960 to 2010. The model includes a
modal aerosol microphysics scheme and online tropospheric chemistry. Anthropogenic
emissions are from MACCity inventory and the model is nudged to reanalysis meteorology
from ECMWF.
We evaluate simulated total and sulphate particulate matter against selected monitoring
sites from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The model’s ability
to reproduce the observed trends has been assessed in terms of the normalised mean bias
factor (NMBF) and correlation coefficient (r2). Average NMBF for total aerosol
mass was -1.05 and -0.43 for sulphate mass. Throughout the entire evaluation time
period model biases have tended to become more negative for sulphate mass but
less negative for total mass. The spatial correlation coefficient of modelled and
observed sulphate mass for each year has remained similar throughout 1978-2010
with an r2 between 0.2 to 0.4, whereas for total mass it has been consistently low
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